[01] Abtin Ataei, Department of Energy Engineering, Graduate School of the Environment and Energy, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. [02] Khaled Fararian, Department of Energy Engineering, Graduate School of the Environment and Energy, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

Renewable energy resources are environmentally friendly and considered as a strategy for decreasing greenhouse gases (GHGs). This paper aims to model the Iran electricity supply system by using Long range Energy Alternative Planning system “LEAP” tool. For this purpose three long-term scenarios, including: reference (BL), current governmental policies (GP) and transition to renewable energies (RE) are used to analyze the effects of energy, economy and environment of each scenario on electricity supply sector until 2040.The final growth rate of electricity demand in GP scenario was less than the BL scenario and in RE scenario, it was less than the GP scenario. The structure of electricity supply system in BL and GP scenarios was approximately similar and combined cycle power plant supplied most of the electricity in these scenarios. In RE scenario by increasing the share of renewable energies in the electricity supply portfolio, 65% of the produced energy, was supplied from renewable resources. This structural change in the RE scenario is resulted in decreasing 157.5 million tons carbon dioxide equivalent of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to the BL scenario as well as 20% and 30% increase in the total production costs compared to BL and GP scenarios, respectively.

Renewable Energy, LEAP Model, Electricity System Scenarios, GHG Emissions Reduction

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