[01] Khamis F. G., College of Business Administration, Al-Ain University of Science and Technology, Al Ain, UAE. [02] Hussain H. Y., Primary Health Care, Dubai Health authority, Dubai, UAE.

The infectious diseases itself and its variation over time are a major concern for policy makers and public health researchers, especially when it comes to allocating critical resources relevant to the field of health and economic sectors. Therefore, in this study, we are among the first to examine the crude incidence rate (CIR) of many infectious diseases in Dubai, UAE. The study design is a time series analysis using polynomial regression model. The study seeks to assess the levels of infectious diseases during the period 1995-2013. The data were obtained from preventive services and communicable disease Section in Dubai. The existence and the variance of 21 infectious diseases were examined over 19 years using descriptive statistics and regression analysis. The CIR was used as a response variable and the time as explanatory variable. It was found that CIR of all diseases decreased remarkably from 1486.82 in 1995 to 307.43 in 2013. The highest and lowest means of CIR for all disease were found 84.89 and 14.64 in 1996 and 2013 respectively. The highest and lowest coefficients of variation were found 308.43 and 170.79 in 2004 and 2013 respectively. Correlation coefficient between the CIR for all diseases and the time was found 0.87. The coefficient of determination was found moderate to high in most estimated regression equations. The F-statistic was found moderate to high significant in most estimated regression equations. The forecasted values for CIR of all diseases in selected years, 2014, 2015, and 2016 were found 680.24, 803.78, and 944.16 respectively. It was concluded that the CIR of most infectious diseases were decreased remarkably in some past periods of time, but some of them are still exist and highly variant over the time period covered by this study. The Change in CIR of all diseases was decreased over the period 1995-2003 while increased over the period 2007-2013. However, the CIR of most diseases was decreased over the period 1995-2003 while increased over the period 2007-2013. The forecasted values for CIR of all diseases showed that they will increase over time. These findings provide insights for local control and prevention strategies.

Statistical Analysis, Dubai, Infectious Diseases

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